Maui in December: My Honest Take + Real Climate Data

Here’s how Maui’s five main activities stack up in December, scored against 5 years of historical weather at the spots where each one actually happens.

December splits in two. Early in the month it's a warm, fairly quiet shoulder; by the holidays it's one of the busiest, priciest weeks of the Maui year. Through all of it the whales are building fast toward their winter peak — my estimate reaches about 65% — and the leeward beaches stay a reliable 84% GO.

It's the start of the wetter season, so expect more cloud and the odd downpour, especially upcountry. But for a holiday trip that pairs warm beaches with the fast-arriving whales, December delivers — and the helicopter is at its winter best. Here's the read.

The short answer

What’s the weather like in Maui in December?

Warm on the leeward beaches, but the wetter season is setting in. South-shore highs averaged about 80°F (26.5°C) and lows 69°F (20.4°C) over five years, with 2.8mm of rain a day and about 7% of days genuinely wet — climbing back toward winter levels. Beaches stayed pleasant near 15.5 km/h, and the Kahului trades were their gentlest in months around 25 km/h. Expect more cloud and the odd downpour, especially upcountry.

If you can pick your week, book this one

December 23–29

In 5 of the last 5 years, 5+ of those 7 days hit the bar — the most reliable week of the month. Averaged 6.6/7 good days.

How beach days trend across the year

Share of days that clear the beach bar, by month — December highlighted.

Activity by activity

🏖️ Beach Day · December · South Maui (leeward)

Go for it — the odds are strongly in your favor.

GO

84% of days hit the bar — 130 of 155 days across 5 years.

Avg high
80°F
Avg daily rain
0.11 in
Avg max wind
10 mph

My bar for a beach day: ≤0.08 in rain · ≥75°F high · ≤16 mph wind

🥾 Hiking · December · Upcountry (~700m)

Go for it — the odds are strongly in your favor.

GO

86% of days hit the bar — 134 of 155 days across 5 years.

Avg high
74°F
Avg daily rain
0.14 in
Avg max wind
11 mph

My bar for a hiking: ≤0.20 in rain · 64°F–86°F high

If you can pick your week, book this one

December 9–15

In 5 of the last 5 years, 5+ of those 7 days hit the bar — the most reliable week of the month. Averaged 6.8/7 good days.

🤿 Snorkeling · December · South Maui (leeward)

Go for it — the odds are strongly in your favor.

GO

81% of days hit the bar — 125 of 155 days across 5 years.

Avg high
80°F
Avg daily rain
0.11 in
Avg max wind
10 mph

My bar for a snorkeling: ≤0.12 in rain · ≥75°F high · ≤12 mph wind

If you can pick your week, book this one

December 23–29

In 5 of the last 5 years, 5+ of those 7 days hit the bar — the most reliable week of the month. Averaged 6.4/7 good days.

🚁 Helicopter Tour · December · Kahului

I’d skip it — most days this month miss the mark.

SKIP

39% of days hit the bar — 61 of 155 days across 5 years.

Avg high
81°F
Avg daily rain
0.07 in
Avg max wind
16 mph

My bar for a helicopter tour: ≤0.04 in rain · ≤16 mph wind

⛵ Boat Tour · December · Māʻalaea Bay

Go for it — the odds are strongly in your favor.

GO

92% of days hit the bar — 143 of 155 days across 5 years.

Avg high
81°F
Avg daily rain
0.06 in
Avg max wind
9 mph

My bar for a boat tour: ≤0.20 in rain · ≤19 mph wind

If you can pick your week, book this one

December 23–29

In 5 of the last 5 years, 5+ of those 7 days hit the bar — the most reliable week of the month. Averaged 7/7 good days.

Can you see whales in Maui in December?

Yes, and the odds climb all month. The humpbacks pour back into the channel — at about 65%, your chances are already good and rising toward the January–March peak. Boats out of Māʻalaea were a 92% GO, so the water is ready when you are.

How crowded is Maui in December?

It depends entirely on which half. The Christmas-to-New-Year stretch is one of the most crowded, expensive windows on the whole island; early December threads the needle, with decent and rising whale odds, far fewer people and softer rates. Late December trades that calm for peak crowds in exchange for the strongest whale odds of the month and the holiday atmosphere. Which half you pick matters more in December than in almost any other month.

What's the best thing to do in Maui in December?

Boats led at 92% GO, and the December 23–29 window averaged a perfect 7 out of 7 — ideal for whale-watching as the numbers build. Beaches were an 84% GO, also best December 23–29. Snorkeling held 81%, same window. Hiking came in at 86%, peaking earlier on December 9–15.

The helicopter stayed a SKIP at 39%, but that's the best it gets all winter: the trades have eased to 25.2 km/h, right at my flight bar. If a flight matters to you, December and the January that follows are your most realistic winter shots — target the December 1–7 window and keep a flexible day in reserve.

When should I go if I've only got a few days?

Pick your trade-off, then time the trip to it. For fewer crowds and better value, come the first half — early December is calmer and cheaper, and the helicopter's best window is December 1–7. For the strongest whale odds and the boat's perfect window, the back half (December 23–29, boats a flawless 7/7) is better, but you'll pay holiday rates.

Is December a good time to visit Maui?

Yes, with timing as the whole game. Early December is a quiet, warm, good-value window with whales already arriving; late December trades all of that for peak crowds and prices in exchange for the strongest whale odds of the month and the holiday buzz. Either way, the leeward beaches hold up and the boat conditions are excellent.

If whales are your priority, December is the on-ramp to the January–March peak — compare it with January and February before you book. And as always, the verdict is mine; the data sitting beside it is yours.

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